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The Economic Machine Was Not Designed to be Shutdown, No V Shape Recovery

This idea of pent-up demand and a V shape recovery is, in my mind, ridiculous. This is a massive wealth destruction type event that will take years to fully recover from. The global economy was simply not designed to be shutdown.

In Canada, we are particularly vulnerable, and the economic recovery is likely to be even more painful than in most countries. This is due to a large debt overhang, which leaves little room for further credit expansion in the private sector. We can see households seeking financial reprieve, with 500k mortgage deferrals already approved by the big banks- and many more to come.

The Bank of Canada's QE bazooka has been fired, and will continue until a recovery is well underway. Meanwhile, OSFI is discussing more relief for banks, and may drop the stability buffer to zero. In other words, banks will be permitted to drawdown on the "rainy day fund"

Like any sane person, I hope this ends soon and a recovery is swift. However, we must be realistic of the probabilities. Position accordingly.





via Steve Saretsky