Well, it happened. The Bank of Canada pulled the trigger on an interest rate increase, the first since October 2018. The trendsetting “overnight” rate doubled from .25% to .50% and the Bank has made it clear more increases are coming.
The upward move and the Bank’s messaging have rekindled the perennial mortgage debate: fixed or variable. The answer remains the perennial: it depends.
It depends on the borrower’s end goals, finances and their desire for stability. That last point, stability, is what leads most Canadian home buyers to opt for a 5-year, fixed-rate mortgage. But in purely financial terms – and saving money – variable-rate mortgages tend to be cheaper and they do not have to be volatile.
In a rising rate environment, many borrowers worry about the cost of their debt going up. But right now, variable-rates are notably lower than fixed-rates and it will take several Bank of Canada increases to close the gap. In the meantime, that amounts to savings for the borrower.
Those savings – often hundreds of dollars a month – could be applied against principal. As rates rise the amount can be adjusted, thereby keeping total monthly payments the same and evening-out any volatility.
It should be remembered that fixed-rates are rising as well. They are tied to Government of Canada 5-year bond yields. Those yields have been increasing, and at least some of that is tied to increases in U.S. government bond yields. Canadian bonds tend to move in sync with American bonds, but those changes do not necessarily reflect the Canadian economy. In other words, the changes are not completely within our control.